For months, professional polling companies have offered daily prognostications of voter preferences cut by age, gender, race, education level, occupation, shoe size, you name it. Every day a new poll would be published that seemed to contradict something produced the day before. The level of volatility was similar to what you might find if you took your blood pressure every five minutes – and the outputs equally useless.
But one seemingly constant figure offered every day was the simple probability that each major 2016 presidential candidate would win the White House. Day in and day out, the pollsters concluded that Hillary Clinton’s chances of winning hovered in the mid-80 to low-90 percent range, leaving Donald Trump with barely double digits. This version of reality was promulgated right up to and deep into Election Day. There’s Hillary holding steady at 80 percent at 8:30 PM like she had all summer – then inside of an hour she’s tied with the Orange man. By 11:00, she’s asymptotically scraping the x-axis, barely pulling 5 percent. How is that fucking possible?
If pollsters were actual professionals, they’d be subject to malpractice suits and disbarred from the tribe. Although they’re obviously not professionals, they should minimally resign from the Society of American Statisticians and promptly jump off the nearest bridge with a span exceeding 150 feet. The only person who was right about the astigmatism of the polls was Trump himself who endured ridicule by the media. He likely challenged what he saw more out of bravado than mathematics, but so what?
If you’re gonna subject the public to an hourly onslaught of polling data, at least break a sweat to get it mostly right. After all, the media outlets that would rather dissect polling data than inspect the candidates’ positions on significant issues are using your stinky shit to propel narratives and dodge the hard work of journalism.
More disconcerting is the likelihood that hundreds of thousands of voters who would have cast a vote “for Her” glanced at Clinton’s seemingly insurmountable “probability to win” and chose to vegetate in their La-Z-Boys rather than drag their dimpled asses to the polling station. Thanks to the ineptitude of the pollsters, voters unwittingly played the role of NBC in 1968 when they cut away from what appeared to be a decided football game in order to broadcast an insipid family show called “Heidi.” The NY Jets led the Oakland Raiders with a minute to go – and in that brief minute football fans across the East Coast missed watching Oakland score two touchdowns to win. NBC blew it and so did the pollsters. We’ll never know how many blissfully ignorant Clinton votes stayed on the couch last night; I guess we could ask the pollsters to model the scenario, but you already know what that would tell us.
Now, the pollsters in their defense will say that their predictions are based on what people tell them; and those people often lie about what they intend to do – perhaps out of embarrassment, or revulsion with pollsters. In other words, the pollsters blame their shoddy outputs on shoddy inputs. Garbage in, garbage out they say. If that’s their defense, then they really should fall on their protractors.
Now, looking below the presidential race at the so-called incumbent vulnerables defending Senate seats, again we see the pollsters whiffed. Time and again they told us the Senate would likely go D because so many Republican incumbents were struggling with the Trump baggage. Prognosed to go down were Pat Toomey (PA), Rob Portman (OH), Kelly Ayotte (NH), Richard Burr (NC), Mark Kirk (IL), Ron Johnson (WI) and to a lesser degree, John McCain (AZ) and Marco Rubio (FL). Only Ayotte and Kirk lost their seats, and the Senate stayed red. Nice work, guys.
Time to Stand and Deliver
So, Trump won and both chambers of Congress stayed in Republican control. Soon Trump will replace Scalia with another troglodyte, returning the Supreme Court to the way it’s been for 40 years. No excuses now. Time to deliver. Here’s what I want to know:
- What great thing will Trump replace Obamacare with?
- What is the detailed budget and timeline for building the wall? And when will we see the arrangement for Mexico to pay for it?
- What is the plan to defeat ISIS?
- How many new coal mining jobs will be produced in 2017?
- How many enforcement personnel and judicial officers will be hired and at what cost to identify and deport the 11 million illegals? What is the timeline for 0 illegals to exist in the U.S.?
- After abrogating the agreement with Iran, what will the U.S. do when they restart their nuclear program?
- When the Supreme Court overturns Roe v Wade, what will the penalties be for performing illegal abortions?
- What percent of Trump voters will benefit from the repeal of the Inheritance (aka. Death) tax?
- When and how will NATO countries be forced to increase contributions?
- What’s the plan to deal with China’s expansion into the South China Sea, with North Korea’s nuclear missile program, with Afghanistan, Syria and Iraq, with Saudi Arabia and Yemen?
I wonder whether Trump just got his worst nightmare. He won’t be able to disengage from difficult projects through bankruptcy courts like he’s used to doing. The Secret Service will probably take away his cell phone. Golf will be cut back and he’ll find it tougher to grab pussy when his every move is logged by White House staff. Melania will age out beyond her usefulness, but divorcing the First Lady will not be an option. His comeback as a TV star will have to wait at least four years when he’ll really be an alter kocker. Damn, being POTUS is such a buzzkill!
I stand by my earlier belief that in the beginning Trump never expected nor wanted to be the president. And by winning, the fucker lost.